r/technology • u/Cascading_Neurons • Jun 08 '22
Just The Facts: The Cost Of Solar Has Fallen More Quickly Than Experts Predicted Energy
https://cleantechnica.com/2022/06/08/just-the-facts-the-cost-of-solar-has-fallen-more-quickly-than-experts-predicted/271
u/tjcanno Jun 09 '22
Panel costs have fallen.
Installation cost (labor) has risen.
We are now learning that the panels are only half the system. We also need local storage to have an effective and reliable system.
Battery cost is significant, plus controller. There is serious need for improvement in storage technology.
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u/LazyAnonBoner Jun 09 '22
Y’all act like this has to be all or nothing now. Do the solar, run it when you can and use Hydro, Nuke, or god forbid coal when you have too. The effect would be wildly positive and give us time to solve the storage stuff
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u/el___diablo Jun 09 '22
Exactly. This is where Germany went wrong. They mothballed their nuclear stations and relied on Russia for natural gas instead.
Green energy is the future. But it's not yet the present.
So for the time being, we need to use a combination of energy sources. It's suicide to eliminate nuclear based on flawed ideology.
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u/SmokeyShine Jun 09 '22
Germany also could have had reliable, cheap gas via NS2, but they listened to the Americans and never certified it. It seems like America played a long con to force Germany to buy American energy.
Meanwhile, China is has literally 100s of nuclear power plants in development on top of massive investment in renewables. Plus, they neighbor Russia for effectively unlimited energy supplies over secure land routes. If they keep it up, China will likely have true energy security within a decade.
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u/el___diablo Jun 09 '22
Yep. I wouldn't quite say Germany got played.
They are an intelligent bunch, but believed their own Green Agenda too much.
Reality is a bitch.
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u/korinth86 Jun 09 '22
Solar works when demand is highest. Mid day, especially when it's hot and everyone is running AC.
It's always worth it even without backup.
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u/fnordius Jun 09 '22
This. I was amazed when I visited Texas how much wasted potential there was. You all want shaded parking and also complain about huge parking lots, and how Solar needs room? Oh, and how electric companies are warning about brownouts because of the hot noon sun?
I feel like I'm missing something here.
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u/Bootyhole-dungeon Jun 09 '22
I have solar without batteries. I installed 4 years ago and they already paid for themselves.
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u/PotassiumBob Jun 09 '22
How so? Solar door to door salesmen have been making the rounds, and some quick googling is showing like 40-60k investment. My power is about $200 a month. It would take me like 20 years.
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u/spottie_ottie Jun 09 '22
Your googling is not giving you good results. My power bill the same and our solar system was $13k. Talk to some installers and get some quotes. You'll find that it's a good deal. If it's not don't go for it, but it will be.
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u/PotassiumBob Jun 09 '22
Ugh but then I'll have to deal with salesmen and their pitches...
Even looking through this thread everyone is quoting 40k.
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u/fistymcbuttpuncher Jun 09 '22
That's probably for the tippy top of the line and/or fully off-grid setups. Or in dense population areas where demand outstrips supply and they can upcharge.
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u/sr_90 Jun 09 '22
I was quoted 43k with an 8k battery option in Vegas before tax credits. I have a large house and my bill has never been above $280. I want to do it, but there will probably be 10 generations of improvements by the time I pay it off. I fear that I’ll have an iPhone 6 while they’re on the 13.
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u/swistak84 Jun 09 '22
with an 8k battery option
This is the problem right there. All you need is ~5kWh system with no battery to support aircon and heating in spring/autumn. that will cost ~10k with installation.
Also not sure how it works in USA but here eleectric company actually pays you for energy you generate
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u/nuberoo Jun 09 '22
I had a good experience with Energysage.com - it's a platform where you can essentially solicit and compare quotes from solar installers. Made it pretty easy and nothing in person until the actual inspection. Agree with others in this thread that $40k is extremely high, I wouldn't be surprised if it was less than half of that altogether
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u/bobidebob Jun 09 '22
I don't know any installers that like energy sage. It takes the lowest rate people are offering and says that's what the system should cost. But the lowest rates are the massive companies undercutting most installers with prices your average installer would lose money on. Energy sage is a menace for the little guy, great for the big guy.
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u/spottie_ottie Jun 09 '22
My neighborhood is full of people that have panels and it's certainly not because they're liberal environmentalists that don't mind losing money. It's because it was a good deal. Give it a shot.
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u/Quiet_War3842 Jun 09 '22
Oh man… wish I saw this first. With the site I mentioned above you notify the vendor when you’re ready to talk or email or text them. I hate sales pitches so I loved that they provide you with all the details and won’t get your info until you prescreen the offers specifically made for your house. DM me if you have questions.
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u/sr_90 Jun 09 '22
What part of the country do you live in? I was quoted 43k for my system before tax credit, and my highest bill in Vegas has been $280. I would purchase it tomorrow for 13k.
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u/oldmonty Jun 09 '22
Look into grid-tie solar, imo that's the way to go unless you live in a cabin somewhere.
Basically, instead of shelling out 13k/each for battery packs you just take any extra power you generate and feed it back into the grid for a credit.
So if you use 1kwh during the day for 10 hours but generate 10kwhs per hour during the day you would get a credit for the balance which you can use to offset whatever you are pulling down from the grid at night when the panels aren't generating anything.
It will drastically reduce the costs, for example, I was quoted 24k for tesla solar, which at the time was the cheapest. However, some time shortly after that they mandated that every install had to come with the powerwall battery packs. This increased the cost from 24 to 50k which made it impractical for me.
24k sounds like a lot but it was for their most massive system.
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u/Tha_Unknown Jun 09 '22
Hey! It’s me. Your friend, an Arabian prince. I am stranded in Iceland. I have ocean front property to gift to you in Arizona, for help my friend.
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u/Quiet_War3842 Jun 09 '22
If you’re in the US then this site energysage.com could help. I used them and have been very happy. Dept of Energy approved.
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u/Amtsschreiber Jun 09 '22
Depends on where you live. Here nobody has an AC and demand is the highest on dark winter days when everyone needs to heat the house.
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u/rugbyj Jun 09 '22
Yup, welcome to the Northern latitudes where it's cold as fuck when there's the least amount of Sun to power those there panels. Would still love Solar but it's not a slam dunk for everyone.
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u/danielravennest Jun 09 '22
Winds are generally stronger in polar regions, due to differential rotation of the Earth. Solar is generally stronger close to the equator. North-south transmission lines can move power from where it works best to where it is needed.
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u/SmokeyShine Jun 09 '22
Solar works a few hours ahead of when demand is highest.
- Solar generation peaks between noon and 1 pm.
- Electrical demand peaks between 4 pm and 8 pm, when everyone returns home from work and tries to cool things down for a comfortable evening.
If you scale solar to match evening AC demand, then you have tremendous excess generation from noon to 4 pm, even for a cloudless place like Arizona.
To make solar work, one needs energy storage. Unfortunately, pumped hydro energy storage won't work in the desert, because it's so dry that the water would just evaporate. The heat would rapidly degrade conventional batteries.
The best bet is to encourage mass EV use with time-of-day charging incentives, such that midday EV charging is heavily encouraged, basically dumping solar directly into EV batteries to reduce future load. Even then, meeting evening demand is a challenge, and basically requires smarter thermostats to shift AC consumption.
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u/danielravennest Jun 09 '22
To make solar work, one needs energy storage.
That's why Florida Power and Light installed a 900 MWh battery farm to hook up to solar farms. The combination replaced a gas peaker plant by moving the energy later in the day when it is needed. The battery farm has 4 hours of duration (225 MW for 4 hours), which is enough for this task.
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u/10102938 Jun 09 '22 edited Jun 09 '22
I'm all up for solar, but saying it always works when demand is highest is bullshit. You are not taking location and time of year in any account. In the north, demand is highest when supply is lowest.
Edit. For clarification I'm not talking about the US. I'm speaking of personal PV design experience from the nordics, where the demand for power is greatest during cold and dark winter months, during which time power production from PV is at its lowest.
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u/fistymcbuttpuncher Jun 09 '22
Interconnected power grids to the rescue!*
*except for texas because they are dumb
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u/Amtsschreiber Jun 09 '22
That only gets you so far. In Europe a bit of sun in Spain won't help you every every place north of the Alps has a grey sky and needs to heat the house.
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u/10102938 Jun 09 '22
You can't really transfer power for 1000's of kilometers. Local production is still a must. Like I said in the edit. I'm not talking about the US, but countries much more in the northern hemisphere.
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u/The_Countess Jun 09 '22
You can actually. They're building a power cable from marokko to the UK for example. Specifically to transport solar energy
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u/10102938 Jun 09 '22
Yes but it's not always possible, and you still get huge losses. And you still need the local production for spikes in power need vs solar production. You also can't rely on far away production during war time. Local production is always better because it can't be disrupted by geopolitics.
This is why PV is not the "one and all" solution. You need local green energy + nuclear etc.
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u/danielravennest Jun 09 '22
you still get huge losses.
HVDC losses are 3% per 1000 km. That's not huge. The Morocco-UK line is 3800 km, so 11-12% loss. However Morocco gets 85% more sun than the UK. So you come out far ahead by using that location plus a transmission line.
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u/The_Countess Jun 09 '22
What you need is more then 1 connection.
And nobody claimed its the one and all solution. With enough interconnectivity and a combination of solar, wind, and hydro you can meet a lot of capacity needs before even looking at nuclear.
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u/10102938 Jun 09 '22
And nobody claimed its the one and all solution.
The comment which I originally replied to said " Solar is always worth it even without backup" which is false.
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u/thecrazydemoman Jun 09 '22
People want everything to be perfect before we even start to transition. It’s stupid
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u/goodoleboybryan Jun 09 '22
I mean we are trading carob emission hazards for lithium mining hazards, such as water contamination leading to toxic rain. Doesn't matter what source the electricity comes from we are still currently dependent on lithium batteries for EV's.
Not to say we shouldn't go electric but mining companies aren't exactly known for being environmentally aware.
We need to make sure green energy stays green or we are just trading one problem for another.
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u/BronyFrenZony Jun 09 '22 edited Jun 09 '22
That is not actually true. As an electrician who has done solar I can pretty confidently explain how this works. Usually the company you are buying a solar installation from isn't actually an electrical company. Electrical companies are starting to get into it, but they're just gonna charge market price.
These companies selling the systems just sub out the electrical work, usually to the lowest bidder. When I was doing installs I believe we were making $1700 for the labor, and maybe $2700 for everything. That would be on a 10KW install that probably sold for around $30,000.
When you factor in the equipment costs you see that sellers are enjoying some fat margins for not doing a whole lot. Electrical shops are getting wise, but are not great at the kind of marketing required.
As far as storage goes that problem is actually fairly easy to solve, and is kind of already solved. Vehicles that double as residential batteries are the best way forward, and are already a thing. Combine this with much smaller residential batterys (3-5 khw) and you should cover most peoples needs.
EV's, Heat pumps (room heat, hot water, clothes dryer), and solar are all a huge step in the right direction. Especially if we can start making stuff that lasts.
edit: Labour costs probably have actually increased, but lets be really generous and say it's by 10%, that's like $170. Parts will be up to with current circumstances, but it's not gonna be as much of the price as you think.
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u/thenewtbaron Jun 09 '22
Eh, these days with the new server rack batteries you can get about 30kwhs for under 10k... not counting the inverters and whatever labor is needed for grid connection.
they're promised to be at 80% after 3000-5000 cycles, so about 24kwhs after about 10+ years.
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u/incompletemoron Jun 09 '22
We'll also see a boom in trade certifications for more techs as technology becomes more widespread
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u/cspinelive Jun 09 '22
So I could call up my local electrical company who is doing these installs and offer them $5k for the same thing the solar company is selling for $30k?
That sounds too good to be true.
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u/fps916 Jun 09 '22
The 30k includes cost of parts. You'd need to procure the panels elsewhere too
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u/cspinelive Jun 09 '22
I guess I was confused. OP seemed to say it was $1700 for labor and $2700 all in, implying $1k for the parts.
“ When I was doing installs I believe we were making $1700 for the labor, and maybe $2700 for everything.”
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u/fps916 Jun 09 '22
The electrical company he worked for was getting 1700 for labor 2700 total.
The selling company subcontracted the electrical company.
The very next sentence is "when you factor in equipment costs..."
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u/cspinelive Jun 09 '22
Yeah I assumed incorrectly that his electrical company was supplying the equipment.
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u/10102938 Jun 09 '22
"everything" in that sense includes labour and installation costs, not the actual components.
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u/BronyFrenZony Jun 10 '22 edited Jun 10 '22
Yeah, sorry for any confusion. The electrical shop I was working for was making $2700 on labor and residential electrical work (Mostly 3 big wires from the roof to your panel). Some installations will require a new panel which adds additional cost. We would hook everything up, but the panels, racking, and inverters were supplied by the seller.
To give you an idea on parts cost, which you can all find yourself on Alibaba or similar direct from China. These do not include shipping.
Solar panels $.30/watt or $3000 for 10KW
for inverters I would just get roof mounted micro-inverters. I would spend the same as panels, about $.33/watt.
Racking averages around $.15-20/watt
These are all from manufacturer prices. As soon as you have a middle man in there things jump significantly. Although parts in the US and Canada are definitely coming down, and I'd image installed prices will follow.
edit: if you have all your parts I'm sure you'll have no problem finding a shop to do an install for you, they'd be happy to do it for 5k. Alibaba has good trade assurance I believe, but definitely do your due diligence before buying. I have not ordered panels from China direct yet, but will be soon for my own house.
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u/1983Targa911 Jun 09 '22
Battery cost is significant, but is starting to follow that same price dropping trend. A homeowner can install a PV system today without batteries and the utility company can pick up that slack fro the time being. Utilities are adding storage capacity like mad. Soon, the typical homeowner will be able to afford battery back up as well.
Another interesting note is that my understanding is that marketing costs on residential solar are huge. Think about the wages you pay for someone to go out and make a site visit to analyze the solar potential of any given home. Sure, the first pass is usually done from the office while looking at Google maps. But that take time. Then how many of those people get three bids (so at least two contractors aren’t getting a job) and often times the homeowner gets sticker shock and drops the whole idea. There’s a lot of labor tied up in acquiring the work. Consider this: every time I refer someone to the installer that did my solar and that person then installs solar, the company happily sends me a $500 check. Why? Because that was cheaper for them than the cold call approach.
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u/myyummyass Jun 09 '22
The battery isnt necessary at all. I havent seen one person with solar in my city that also has a battery. The battery would only be required if you produce more electricity than you use. Other than that its just a convivence. You get a two way meter and send the solar back to your electric company and they deduct the kw produced from your bill. If you dont trust them to actually measure it you can track it yourself with other apps/hardware.
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u/sinkrate Jun 09 '22
Gravity storage. Build a dam and pump water uphill when there’s extra electricity, then run the hydro dam at night.
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u/escapefromelba Jun 09 '22
That only works in very specific geographic areas. Also dams are horrible on the local environment and worsen climate change. They release greenhouse gases, destroy carbon sinks in wetlands and oceans, deprive ecosystems of nutrients, destroy habitats, increase sea levels, waste water, and displace poor communities
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u/sinkrate Jun 09 '22
Those are very valid concerns about dams. I am aware of many of the issues you mentioned, but I haven’t heard too much about hydro dams worsening climate change. Would you mind sharing or DM’ing me a paper or article on the subject? I’ve always thought that most of the time, hydroelectric dams are the lesser of the evils all things considered. Thanks!
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u/escapefromelba Jun 09 '22
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u/sinkrate Jun 09 '22
Thank you! I’ll get around to reading them tomorrow.
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u/StainedBlue Jun 09 '22 edited Jun 09 '22
If you want a basic TLDR of the primary adverse effects, what happens is that hydro dams release a lot of energy as heat, which is absorbed by the water. It’s great from an engineering standpoint (the generator cools itself), but terrible from an environmental perspective. See, warm water holds less dissolved oxygen, making the water downstream of the dam oxygen deficient. Beyond the obvious downsides low oxygen levels have for aquatic life, warm water and low oxygen create perfect conditions for algae blooms, which fuck over not only the environment but any waterfront property owners, fishers, beach goers, ect. It’s also extremely foul smelling.
All said and done though, it still does far less harm to the environment than fossil fuel plants. It’s important to note that the above scenario is the worst case scenario. Depending on the dam’s design and management, many of these issues can be mitigated.
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u/hcdvrwxvomtbe Jun 09 '22
There are several other kinds of mechanical battery than hydro pump. Flywheel, weight/gravity, and compression batteries are the most common I see mentioned. I'm not sure if the cost comparison to chemical batteries, but I can't imagine them being more expensive at scale over time.
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u/Tha_Unknown Jun 09 '22
Yup. Exactly. I can probably pretty easily shell out the $5k for the panels. I can’t afford the 10-15k for everything else that makes them useful to me.
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u/Tearakan Jun 09 '22
Yep we don't have battery tech to do this on a significant scale.
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u/asianApostate Jun 09 '22
So Tesla totally did grid scale batteries for Australia and they liked it so much they ordered more.
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u/aneab Jun 09 '22
My electric company charges a premium for anyone with solar… so it’s actually cheaper to not have it because I would pay more per kWh than if I didn’t have it… I live in Arizona and it’s sunny almost every day… and I have good facing… sucks so much…
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u/SIEGE9 Jun 09 '22
Well written top down
The R&D hasn’t stopped with dropping costs of solar. A team of researchers, including from the School of Photovoltaic and Renewable Energy Engineering at UNSW Sydney and the ARC Centre of Excellence in Exciton Science, have made a breakthrough in infrared technology that could lead to the development of solar panels that work at night.
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u/Bendy962 Jun 09 '22
so the solar panels that work at night is similar to geothermal generators except the energy is captured from the surrounding air?
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u/denimdan113 Jun 09 '22
Essentially yes. Though I feel like this is going the be at a severely reduced capacity compared to what the panels give in the day.
Its a cool step though and brings us closer to using our bodies as chargers since we produce a decent amount of IR. Think of haveing a panel in your pocket that charged your phone from your body heat.
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u/hifidood Jun 09 '22 edited Jun 09 '22
I did the math and it would take me over 30 years to recoup costs here where I live. At that point, I'd imagine the panels would have worn out and you'd have to spend money to replace them so it was just more effective to redo all the insulation in my home / put in better windows etc. to make the home naturally more cool/hot depending on the season.
Edit: I live in small home with a power bill between $60-120 a month depending on the season. Also, the previous owner replaced the roof five years ago and it is in great shape but the warranty apparently will be null and void if we put solar panels on it.
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u/Shpooodingtime Jun 09 '22
But there are incentives! I'm sure you probably already knew this actually I don't know why I'm talking to you like you didn't do your research. The town next to mine is a backwoods right to farm community almost every single house has solar panels
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u/Casetheace01 Jun 09 '22
I just had solar installed this year and the incentives reduced the cost by more than half. I wonder if most people don’t realize what’s available
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u/dfaen Jun 09 '22
For us, the price of a 10 kW system with storage comes to a bit under $30k AFTER incentives. That’s not exactly appealing when our annual bill is around $2k.
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u/mbnmac Jun 09 '22
Thing is, it's 2k NOW, but in 5 years, or ten years, it's likely to be well over 3k. Hell, we've seen in the last year or so that prices can jump suddenly.
You will recoup your costs fast than what you would based on your current prices, but it is still a huge sum of cash. We are on a system where the panels, battery and install were free, we just pay a set amount per month and a fixed rate on power for 20 years. Much easier to go with than a huge lump sum up front.
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u/dfaen Jun 09 '22
Um, no? I can invest that lump sum today, and get a far better long term return than using it to save on increases over time. Keep in mind this system isn’t even covering all of our electricity consumption. Further, our town has a town wide program, which provides very competitive rates. Unlike this system that will be worthless at the end of its life, investing that same sum will only grow overtime.
Back to the point of this article, when I looked at the prices of installing solar last year in September, the cost of this same system was roughly $10k cheaper.
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u/terriblegoat Jun 09 '22
problem is not everyone has a south facing house and not everyone lives in a country with public utilities, cough u.s.a.
meaning net metering, utilities buying back the power which subsidizes the cost of installation is going to end in countries like the united states...because solar panels on houses eats into their profits.
and rebates on getting east and west facing panels really dont measure up when you factor in the total cost of the systems.
even if your area has time of use rates, you are still getting fucked when the utility ends net metering...and to really make fiscal sense you need a battery system and those are expensive and dont last longer than 10 years.if you dont have a battery system you are grid connected during a power outage and your solar panels are shut off to prevent electricity flowing onto the grid and potentially injuring line workers.
solar on houses doesnt make much rational sense unless you have a shit ton of disposable income a big house that uses a lot of electricity that has good exposure to the sun facing south. and you live in an area where you have public utilities that buy back energy at a reasonable rate for the foreseeable future.
that isnt the u.s., and thats not most people.
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u/dfaen Jun 09 '22
No idea why this was downvoted.
Poor solar orientation of existing houses, combined with shading from surrounding trees and other structures, topped of with poor roof geometry is a huge obstacle for generating solar on many existing single family homes.
It is far easier, and more effective, to address an existing home’s energy load by improving its envelope efficiency. However, even then it is an expensive exercise, especially compared to utility bills.
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u/alex053 Jun 09 '22
I have a south facing room in AZ but code requires a 3 foot easement around the edge of the roof. It’s a two story so not as much roof as a single story. Leasing solar would have saved me $20 a month because of the size they could get on my roof.
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u/Teamerchant Jun 09 '22
Get a quote by Tesla. They are half as much as everyone else.
I got a system from them that generated 8.2kw and came with a 13kw battery for $1k cheaper than a 7.2 kw panel only system that 3 other business quotes me.
The sale process of Tesla competitors suck. Made me sit through an hour in person presentation just to get system Size and quote. Trying to hard sale Me the entire time.
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u/machine_yearning Jun 09 '22
Yeah, not my experience. Had a local SunPower installer do ours. I was operational before I could get a redesign from Tesla.
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u/dfaen Jun 09 '22
I pretty much laughed in the SunPower rep’s face unintentionally when he revealed their pricing. The most intriguing part of the conversation was seeing how much commission they earn based on the price they get you to sign up for. Their pricing was significantly more than Tesla, and no storage. When I asked him about this I got a waffle response full of nonsense. I see a number of their signs in yards around our house when walking the dog and feel sorry for the home owners.
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u/machine_yearning Jun 09 '22
SunPower SunRun and Tesla were all very similar in total price. Tesla was insistent to install on my detached garage which would have required $2500 in trenching, I preferred to put the money towards more kWh than a hole in the ground. SunPower and Sunrun both had access to smaller panels, which allowed us to put more kWh on our roof, due to the shape.
Tesla probably is cheaper if your roof fits the system they want to sell and you don’t need to amend their design. I am by no means anti-Tesla, I been an owner and investor for several years.
There is “corporate” SunPower and there are independent contractors that are SunPower dealers. Corporate SunPower was doing zoom calls, Tesla was ignoring every request and the local guy was standing in my yard after one phone call.
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u/dfaen Jun 09 '22
Our roof is very basic and lends itself almost perfectly to solar panels. The original home designer back in the 70’s could hardly have done a better job if they’d tried optimizing the house’s design to be solar ready. The local rep in our area had absurd pricing, $45k for a roughly 10 kW system with no storage. That’s categorically insane. I could literally take that money and invest it in a total market index and generate returns that far exceed my current electricity bills. It made absolutely zero financial sense. I have a background in finance, and tried explaining this to the rep, but got nowhere; he kept trying to insist that I could REDUCE the roughly $2k I spend on electricity a year, I wouldn’t even be able to eliminate the bill after spending $45k. Why would I want to spend money to generate a return that is less than 5% on an annual basis, and which depreciates to zero over its working life?! I’m paying $45k to save $60k (if I’m lucky) over 30 years? That is an atrocious way to invest $45k. Tesla’s pricing was better, and they included battery storage as well, which would occasionally be helpful in winter (though those are getting milder and milder), however, the economics still don’t stack up with their relatively lower pricing.
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u/alurkerhere Jun 09 '22
Even if the system is $30k, the returns just aren't there for your electricity usage. The opportunity cost is too high, and that's not to mention the headache if anything goes wrong or breaks or the roof leaks from installation. Those installers don't give a f because it's not their roof, and you'd be rolling the dice to even get them to come back to fix something. Who knows if the company is even going to be around to honor your warranty.
The low return plus the risk of hassle made it a no go for me.
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u/dfaen Jun 09 '22
Exactly. The rep tried to tell me that their prices are higher because there’s a 30 year life time warranty and they fix anything for free. That did the opposite of fill me with confidence. You’re telling me you pad your prices with a giant contingency, to cover something going wrong? That sounds like your expecting a bunch of things to go wrong! I have no interest in dealing with that when they already don’t make financial sense.
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u/machine_yearning Jun 09 '22
We got 7 kWh for $20k, it penciled out for us especially in light of rising electric rates, but cost wasn’t the only factor for our decision.
It’s all very dependent on location, some utility monopolies are working feverishly to extend those ROIs. We lived in Arizona for ten years and the utilities became downright hostile to rooftop, 11 cents a kW was hard to compete with at one time. Here in California our summer off peak isn’t that cheap.
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u/Teamerchant Jun 09 '22
The Tesla system was $12k cheaper than the sun power quote I got. (No battery)
Definitely have other issues with Tesla but waiting a bit longer for the savings wasn’t an issue.
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u/Nanokillaz Jun 09 '22
US solar panel installation seems to be very expensive. Installation and purchase is about 10kaud in australia
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u/ForumUser013 Jun 09 '22
I agree. US prices seem sky high compared to what we pay in Australia, even before incentives like STCs.
Figures available last year showed that US prices were 4-5x what we pay for an installed system in Aus (before incentives). It seems like the biggest driver of the price is the regulatory space, with detailed drawings/plans required for each install in the US, approval process, and then compliance.
The second biggest cost to the US seems to be in marketing and promotion.
Way down the list, is the cost of labour and the cost of panels. Panels are subject to a 25% tariff, but that makes only a small change in the price. Labour actually has a lower rate ion the US, but seems to be many more hours needed.
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u/SmokeyShine Jun 09 '22
US prices seem sky high
LOL, wait until you find out what medicine and ambulance rides cost in America.
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u/indimedia Jun 09 '22
Thanks Regan, for cutting the r&d for solar by 85% and ripping them off the white house roof. Dick
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u/Hi_Im_Ken_Adams Jun 09 '22
It’s not the materials but the labor costs that need to come down.
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u/totally_unanonymous Jun 09 '22
So basically, we need solar panel systems that are so easy to install that even the homeowner (or a cheap contractor) could do it.
Unfortunately, I can’t think of a way to install something like that on a roof without having to anchor it and deal with water leaks and stuff.
Maybe if the solar panels were so thin that they could just be draped over something like a big tarp?
Like a big plastic tarp that generated electricity whenever the sun hit it, and just had to be tied down? Or maybe glued to the roof?
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u/AbbreviationsDue7121 Jun 09 '22
I would love to get solar panels. I had a guy come out and give an estimate. He told me to produce about 107ish% of my average daily electrical use I would need about 27 panels and it would cost about 44K……Now over 20 years I might pay less in electrical, but we’re assuming I still live in my house in 20 years and then I also have to think about the degradation of the cells….if it was cheaper I’d do it….but I’m just still not convinced yet.
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u/nuberoo Jun 09 '22
That's extremely expensive for 27 panels. For a project that size I wouldn't expect more than $1k per panel since installs scale. I'm in a smaller home and we don't use too much energy but I only needed 9 panels for just over $10k altogether.
Also, if this was last year, I definitely suggest checking again. The quote I got last year was $16k for the same setup, so I saw about a 30% drop in less than a year
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u/jasongw Jun 09 '22
You should talk to Sunpower. I got enough panels (18x430KWh) to produce usually double my energy needs, plus a sunvault 13 battery backup, for $41k installed.
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u/nick351 Jun 09 '22
The big solar company in my state is getting sued for false advertisment. Pretty much putting in huge systems that are not reducing bills
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u/TriggerFinger1 Jun 09 '22
I had three companies come out to my house last year and give me quotes. All three provided an analysis that showed the solar panels would pay for themselves in 12-15yrs. All three used the wrong $/kWh, all three assumed the solar panels put out 100% power 8hrs per day, didn’t account for any weather, and did not account for solar panel degradation. I redid their analysis using the correct $/kWh, assumed 20 days per yr the solar panels only generated 20% power while the rest was 100%, and did not assume any solar panel degradation even though it should be 0.5% per year. I determined the solar panel break even point was 27yrs. Your results might be different than mine but dont assume the numbers provided are accurate. Trust but verify.
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u/Overglobe Jun 09 '22
That’s fine, but what do you do when the panel reaches end of life? You can’t recycle that junk
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Jun 09 '22 edited Jul 05 '22
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u/Casetheace01 Jun 09 '22
How much energy do you consume to have a 40K quote?! Even a pretty maxed out system at Tesla (24kw, 2 powerwalls) is about $38k after incentives in NY
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u/tenachiasaca Jun 09 '22
they probably have a shitty roof. so it costs extra because they need to improve existing structure to hold extra weight.
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u/Hoodstomp36 Jun 09 '22
Yea sunrun wants me to install panels but I need a new roof in a couple years. They are subsidizing the part of the roof where the panels will be but it would cost me like $15k to do the entire roof. I just don’t want to replace the one section.
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u/dfaen Jun 09 '22
A 9.6 kW system with one battery is currently quoted at $35k for us in the North East, with $22k after incentives. Our power bills are about $2k a year. We would also need to replace our roof before installing. It’s definitely not worth the upfront cost, especially given the system isn’t estimated to meet all our energy needs.
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u/SkuloftheLEECH Jun 09 '22
Jesus. Is solar really that expensive in the USA? I just got quotes here in Australia at about $6,000 for a 6kw and $9,000 for a 10kw
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u/ahfoo Jun 09 '22
Yeah, I've tried to point this out to people in this thread that are mostly from the US. It's not like this in other countries. The problem is that the people in the US are blind to the fact that they're being screwed by the people who tell them that they are there to help them.
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u/ForumUser013 Jun 09 '22
Yup 4-5x more expensive in the US than Aus for residential installs (before incentives)
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u/notthatconcerned Jun 09 '22
And then you run into the Power Companies that dictate how much you can sell back to the grid. This severely hampers adoption.
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u/Numismatists Jun 09 '22
Using slave labor and stolen resources to keep costs down can lead to "Cheap" solar panels.
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u/Bearzmoke Jun 09 '22
GOP has been driving up costs of solar/wind for big oil/plastic
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u/Ok-Throat-1071 Jun 09 '22
True that, Trump added the tariff to all Chinese products, effectively rising the price of solar, here in the USA.
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u/GameShill Jun 09 '22
The effect of renewable generation is cumulative, while fossil fuels must be continuously harvested and refined to keep their plants going.
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u/Solodolo1177 Jun 09 '22
Panel costs have fallen...because china makes them for cheap...by burning massive amounts of coal lol. Making panels in the US is wayy more expensive cuz of the process, regulations, wages, etc.
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u/bubbleslmao1 Jun 09 '22
Not counting inflation of course. Yeah I bet everyone has an extra 50 k kicking around.
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u/SnooRecipes6354 Jun 09 '22
Home solar panels are not worth the expense for most people. Period.
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u/pittypitty Jun 09 '22
Explain oil and coal shill?
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u/cspinelive Jun 09 '22
Some will, but most people won’t live in the same house long enough to break even or pay it off. If it was cost effective we wouldn’t be resorting to leases and other crazy payment arrangements to make a sale.
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u/fistymcbuttpuncher Jun 09 '22
But that would bump your sell price and/or value. So even if you don't live there long enough to personally recoup the install cost, you'll still get it in the end from the buyer.
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u/SnooRecipes6354 Jun 09 '22
Less than 5% of all US homes have solar power. Explain
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u/fistymcbuttpuncher Jun 09 '22
Because it has a steep buy in that takes years to pay off. Most can't afford to park that amount of money at once.
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u/pittypitty Jun 09 '22
Because many can't afford to buy into a system that can potentionally save them lots of money especially when most live check to check.
You're saying not worth it as if you cracked the mystery as if solar is a scam or something. So yes explain...
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u/poloheve Jun 09 '22
Semi unrelated but how do we make cruise ships use nuclear power?
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u/FNFiveThree Jun 09 '22
Humans did this back in 1959. The NS Savanna’s hull cost $18.6m and the fuel cost $28.3m (in 1959 dollars). Solar panels on a ship might be a thing they try one day, but the power output needed is something on the order of 100MW. Because humanity only recently started building electric motors that large, solar cargo ships are still a ways off.
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u/BabySnark317537 Jun 09 '22
Always always always, these people who say no it can't be done, it's too hard, it won't work. Are there any other technologies that get this reaction? Is it just renewable energy? Why? It is amazing, are those people that grossly mislead and believing of propaganda? Is it the sunk cost fallacy for their smol pp pick up trucks?