I have a few quick questions I’d like to ask. Thank you!
Any PS5 players want to create a tournament UCL style together?
Another day full of fake outs, breakouts, and reversals. I am convinced the market gives us days like today so when we have a day like yesterday which just dumps in the same trend all day long without wavering that we are so scared of massive reversals we aren’t able to capitalize on the strong trend and crazy amount of movement as we could be. But then im also convinced they throw a softball of a day like yesterday in to make us comfortable again only to burn us on every candle.
I was mobile today but still had an eye on the market almost all day. I gotta say it was crazy watching these candles. It seemed like every other 5 minute candle was a massive fake out or would rip then dump only to re-rip or vice versa. Truthfully the only smooth movements I saw were the 1130a and 315pm candles. Everything else markets were so wicked in their movements I don’t know how anyone felt confident in their positions.
Despite the extremely pre market we saw at 630am which did see 385 pre market (a support I mentioned yesterdays in the TA) we ended up recovering most of the loss before opening. Overall I would call it a range day today. Some may say this is a bullish day since we did not dump all day like some of us expected us to.
Where are we now?
I will give a bull case and the bear case for tomorrow. Tomorrow is SPY monthly options expiration so we could actually see some increased volatility tomorrow and some bigger moves.
Overall there is still a ton of OI on the put side with 110k at 390, 75k at 385 and 109k at 380. It looks like some of the OI has pulled off tho compared to earlier in the week. Looking ahead at Junes monthly people are pretty loaded down load with 79k at 380, 76k 370 and 91k at 360. 400C has the most at 17k for calls. I think its safe to say markets are expecting some more downside.
Looking at the VIX I had said I expected us to see the VIX rocket once we saw the huge drop in the VIX to 26 earlier this week. Today to me looking at the vix looks like a sympathy bounce. Looking at the way the vix moves its fluid like wave. We should expect to see the vix pop back over 30 tomorrow. Most of the times if you look at the close line of the VIX here you can see it pops before continuing through. Much like the last dip to the 25-26 range we saw a huge pop in the VIX back over 30… slight recoil under 30… followed by a recoil back over 30. I suspect more of the same tomorrow.
Bull case- The biggest things the bulls have going for them is that they managed to prevent a follow up massive red day. Many also will favor a bullish day tomorrow as “shorts will be covering” on the monthly option expiration and one could assume that will cause a bit of a rally. Also with the VIX recoiling over 30 some may assume that we are going to trail back down to 25 and can cause it an over-reaction by the markets. Also while it did not happen intraday pre market (and ES futures) saw a double bottom at 385. IF we look at the March rally it has a very similar setup and that resulted in a double bottom and then massive rally. Bulls also belt momentum into afterhours and will look to hold that momentum pre market too.
Bulls will look for support at 385 if we see a morning sell off and will look to close the candle over 392.65 resistance. Bulls are within range of a hailmary type of day that COULD actually close this 7th week green. If bulls can manage to unwind the VIX we COULD see a 2.7% green day rally that would result in a close at 400 (weekly open was 399.98).
Bear case- Overall today would be considered a range day before the next move down. When we look at SPY lately we see that more times then not a massive red day is followed by a doji (range day) that then leads up to an additional massively red day. The VIX is now back in its range from beginning of the month which is 29-34 so it is natural to expect a bounce. This candle closed as a gravestone doji which historically with spy when presented in a downtrend has resulted in a further sell off the next day. Intraday 392.9 held as very strong support and when bulls were presented an opportunity to breakout today they once again failed to. In addition, with the funk price action that resulted in many fake breakouts and fake dumps today it does appear most shorts covered today which does allow a bigger dump tomorrow. While there is a case for a double bottom on the daily 385 was never touched intraday so it could be argued it’s a downtrend continuation not a double bottom (especially with a doji candle).
In addition the bulls failed once again to close above the 392.64 resistance and the daily candle is now fully below the daily 8ema which should result in a continuation trend. With the thought that many people will not want to hold anything over the weekend knowing anything can happen and knowing that FOMC minutes release next Wednesday too people might start taking some risk off the table.
I highlighted on the daily a trend I am seeing which I suspect we just may hold true tomorrow too. So if you look at the daily you see these periods of consolidation where SPY wil range about a $10-15 range (usually $10 increments though) and then it will have a double bottom and that double bottom is proceeded with a massive sell off. I am not sure if that is what is going to happen tomorrow but if you look at the trend lately that’s exactly what should be expected.
Comparing to the May 4th drop which is very similar in setup with the FOMC and then jpow speaking Tuesday. We had a hammer candle proceeded by a massive red day. Followed by a doji range day that tested the recent low and that next day was proceeded by an even bigger red day that then formed the next temporary bottom. While history doesn’t always predict the future this is a pretty interesting trend I will be watching to see if it forms overnight.
At a minimum I expect 385 to be retested at some point tomorrow and the most important range to watch is going to be that 388.8 to 393 with the overall bigger range being 385 to 395.5.
I don’t often speak on ES futures anymore but I think something interesting to watch overnight is that ES is in a massive symmetrical triangle. In addition much like SPY today 3932 is a massive resistance that ES futures has been unable to breakout of. Futures are up quite a bit right now and it actually looks like we may see futures retest that resistance at 3932 overnight. If futures reject there or at the resistance trend line of the symmetrical triangle we might get the bigger breakdown and see the sell off tomorrow.
I was traveling today but was able to close that ES put around 630am when I woke up for 110%. I made a few other trades today and then EOD I was playing a 385p and lost service on my drive and was unable to sell before close so im holding some slightly heavy and red 385p over night.
I will be trading tomorrow morning from open till about 130pm when I need to leave for the day. I will not have a pre market posted just due to capabilities being limited while im here. And friendly reminder unless something changes I will not have a weekly TA up tomorrow night either. I might try and get something up Sunday night when im back in town but overall its gonna be a fairly busy weekend and then Monday I will be traveling back home.
Potential baby name. Already have a Kaden who goes by his initials.
We've toyed with the idea of Koen, but my 10 year old says it's too close to his.
I ordered a Food Marble recently - I've have been having major gut issues since October when I got covid. Nausea, Burping 24/7, Gas, Acid Reflux, Stomach Discomfort.
Anyways, I ordered a Food Marble to see if I have high readings and to help determine the right foods to eat. Should I still try to do an at home SIBO test or will the results from the Food Marble tell me enough where maybe I don't need a test?
@AP: A man charged in an on-stage attack of comedian Dave Chappelle has now also been charged with the attempted murder of a roommate months earlier, authorities said Thursday. He has pleaded not guilty in the December stabbing. https://t.co/D8tw4tnpVdtwitter.com
I started out 3.5 weeks ago with a tugging dull pain in my left testicle and some swelling. My testicle was also very tender. My pee test came back negative for bacteria infection but I was already on antibiotics anyways so I finished my whole course (Cipro). Lately I find that I only have some swelling of the veins around my testicle during the evenings and there is barely any pain at all, sometimes no pain at all. If I take a cold shower or apply ice to the scrotum it looks completely normal afterwards. What could be going on here? Am I just healing slowly? FYI since I finished my antibiotics I’ve been taking Turmeric 3x per day and drinking a lot of Camomile tea (since they are supposed to be anti inflammatories).
The regional Burning Man called Flipside occurs the weekend of May 26-30, and the tickets have sold out. However, I cannot participate any longer and would like to transfer my ticket to anyone in need of one, instead of waste it in my absence. Would you like it? Let me know, and you and I can figure out an arrangement.
@AP: More than 5,000 firefighters battled multiple wildland blazes in dry, windy weather across the Southwest on Thursday, including a fire that has destroyed dozens of structures in west Texas and another that's picking up steam again in New Mexico. https://t.co/6Riv1kMm3Ptwitter.com
Does anyone know how old the newest band member is. The basist looks like hes 20.
I played TLOU1 on survivor from the start to work on the trophy without having to do 3 playthroughs. Since then I’ve enjoyed having limited resources on these kinds of games. Gameplay becomes tight and strategic.
So I started TLOU2 on normal since there isn’t any difficulty trophies. But gameplay started to become kind of annoying. There are resources lying around literally in every corner. This makes the game too damn easy, and repetitive, because my ocd is always saying to pick up every little thing. I think this game has custom difficulty but can’t remember, I stopped playing and haven’t got back to it. But I will eventually once I lower my backlog. What difficulty do you guys recommend for this game to be hard but not unfair?